Futures Trading Basics: Pit vs. Electronic Hours for Major Commodities (Central Times)



Copper 7:10-12:00 Cocoa 17:00-16:15
Gold 7:20-12:30 Coffee 17:00-16:15
Silver 7:25-12:25 Cotton 17:00-16:15
Palladium 7:30-12:00 Sugar#11 17:00-16:15
Platinum 7:20-12:05
Crude Oil 8:00-13:30
Crude Contango Idx 8:00-13:30
Crude MACI Idx 8:00-13:30
Crude Oil Fncl 8:00-13:30
Heating Oil 8:00-13:30
Heating Oil Fncl 8:00-13:30
Heating Oil/Crude 8:00-13:30
Natural Gas 8:00-13:30
RBOB Gasoline 8:00-13:30
REBCO Crude 9:00-13:30


Copper 17:00-16:15
Silver 17:00-16:15 Gold Volatility Idx 17:00-16:15
Palladium 17:00-16:15 E-Micro Gold 17:00-16:15
Platinum 17:00-16:15 Miny Copper 17:00-16:15
Crude Oil 17:00-16:15 Miny Gold 17:00-16:15
Crude Oil Fncl 17:00-16:15 Miny Silver 17:00-16:15
MINY Crude Oil 17:00-16:15
Heating Oil 17:00-16:15
Heating Oil Fncl 17:00-16:15
MINY Heating Oil 17:00-16:15
Natural Gas 17:00-16:15
MINY Natural Gas 17:00-16:15
PJM Electricity 17:00-16:15
RBOB Gasoline 17:00-16:15
MINY RBOB 17:00-16:15
REBCO Crude 17:00-16:15

Remember 27 September on 26 October & 22 November

Jesse's Café Américain: The Next Two Dates to Watch for Comex Option Expiration in the Metals

Keep an eye out for the next two Comex option expirations in the metals, both tomorrow 26 October but in particular the December expiry on 22 November. And never forget how the metals markets were ruthlessly slammed down into the October expiration on Sept 27,

Introducing the 6 Month Work Year Plan: The Seasonal Advantage of Investing Nov-April

A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors | The Big Picture

Here are the specifics of seasonality: Imagine we start with two $10,000 accounts, and use them to make investments in an S&P 500 Index fund. One account invests in one 6-month period, the other invests in the remaining 6-month period. Account A is invested from November 1st through April 30th each year, while Account B is invested from May 1st through October 31st. Here are the numbers: • Account A portfolio grew from $10,000 to over $438,967. That is a 42-fold increase. • Account B portfolio barely doubled to $22,659.

50+% Haircut - "Contagion Waterfall" Trigger Event to ECB Insolvency

The Dealbreaker: Barclays Sees A 50-60% Haircut As A CDS Trigger | ZeroHedge

Where it won't be a formality is for the ECB however, which has been avoiding reality, and which will have to remark its entire array of Greek bons from par to 40 cents on the dollar, which as Alex Gloy indicated earlier, will render the central bank immediately insolvent.

Oil Traders Just Read This

Why You Should Be Watching Days Of Oil Supply

Over the years it has been my observation that while the level of days supply influences oil prices, changes in direction matter more.

Gold and Oil Guy is 50/50 On Which Way Crude & Gold Will Break Next

ETF Trading Gold Newsletter » How to Trade Gold and Oil Prices This Coming Week

Overall I am still bearish on oil but have moved to cash until I see another high probability setup unfolding. The recent price action in crude oil makes the odds about a 50/50 bet as to which way it will break next. This is why I have moved back to cash and pocketed the quick gain

ETF Trading Gold Newsletter » How to Trade Gold and Oil Prices This Coming Week

Gold finally broke down from the bearish rising wedge which it had been forming through late September until mid October. I know the majority of traders, investors, and financial newsletters have already positioned themselves either long or short the metal as they anticipate the next major move. I will agree that a large move either up or down is just around the corner but what sets me apart from others is the fact that I don’t bet my hard earned money when the odds are 50/50. I don’t pick tops or bottoms; rather I wait for a clean break out or low risk entry point. Only then will I take action. Until the blue box on the chart has been broken with some type of retest I will continue to observe and analyze the chart of gold.

Why Own Gold?

Smokers To Rescue the World Again (As Usual) / The Euro Crisis Soap Opera in Juicy Gossipy Detail

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and chairman of the eurogroup of finance ministers, joined journalists outside the security cordon of the EU summit venue for a cigarette. He has been forbidden to smoke inside by Mr Van Rompuy. "I needed a break," he said. "I have no idea how long all this is going to take."

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

without a default, the Greek debt crisis alone could swallow the eurozone's entire €440 billion bailout fund - leaving nothing to spare to help the affected banks of Italy, Spain or France.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister turned IMF chief - and one of the few key players who appeared to be enjoying herself in her new headmistress-like role - issued a grim warning to her former European peers. The IMF would no longer be willing to pick up a third of the total bill for rescuing Greece, a contribution worth €73 billion, unless European banks were prepared to write off 50 per cent of Greek debt.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

Outside the security cordon on the other side of the road to the building's entrance on Avenue Livingstone, anarchist graffiti on a wall proclaimed in French: "After Greece, Belgium, the insurrection is coming."

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

According to insiders, Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's finance minister, could not resist taking an "I told you so" approach - he had been, after all, the first to call for an "orderly" default for Greece 18 months ago, at a time when the cost of such a move was less than one third of the price today. "Schaeuble is a man who does not mince his words, whose reputation for harshness and arrogance is well earned. He was, frankly, unbearable,"

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

Interpersonal relations between eurozone leaders have hit an all-time low, reflecting sharp disagreements between Germany and France over using the ECB to bailout the euro and presenting an additional obstacle to finding a "grand solution" to Europe's debt crisis.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

Nicolas Sarkozy's "two faced" personality has been cited as a major factor in his dysfunctional relationship with Angela Merkel.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

"She says she is on a diet and then helps herself to a second helping of cheese," the French president allegedly said after a dinner meeting with Mrs Merkel.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

This Ecofin meeting has been reduced to an academic seminar, an exercise with absolutely no purpose," complained one finance minister.

Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power - Telegraph

And to cap it all, as The Sunday Telegraph can now reveal, Herman Van Rompuy, the EU president who is regarded by many as too close to Berlin, angered many countries when he made confidential proposals for the creation of a European finance ministry.

Who Cares What the Yalies Think: READ THIS and DON'T WEEP....PREPARE!

EU bank failures will crash Wall Street — again - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

1. Greece will default very soon ...

”Banks must bite the bullet and take some big hits in their Greek loans. … Whether banks accept this ‘solution’ voluntarily or not, it will mean Greece is in default.”

2. The contagion of fear will spread …

Global investors know “if one major Western government can default, so can others.” They will refuse to lend “to highly indebted governments” or “demand outrageously high yields.”

3. European megabanks will collapse …

Some of the “largest banks will collapse under the weight of defaulting sovereign debts and … mass withdrawals … Spain … French banks” … the impact will ripple across “J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup … All three are in danger.”

4. EU governments suffer new credit rating downgrades ...

”France and Germany, will scramble to rescue their failing banks.” But “bank bailouts are seriously flawed” as “governments gut their own fiscal balance … suffer big downgrades,” or pay “far higher interest rates.”

5. Spain and Italy next to face default on their massive debts ...

With “$3.4 trillion in debt, or about 10 times more than Greece” they too risk default.

6. Global debt markets will suffer a critical meltdown ...

Anticipating “default by a country as large as Spain or Italy, nearly all debt markets in the world will freeze.” Withdrawals, panic “not only crush the borrowing power of the PIIGS” but threaten meltdowns in “France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.”

7. Vicious cycle: sovereign defaults, bank failures, global depression ...

Government defaults trigger more bank failures, “cut off the flow of credit to businesses and households, sink the global economy into a depression, and perpetuate the vicious cycle.”

Listen closely: Weiss final warning to all investors: “Get all or most of your money out of danger immediately … above all, stay safe!” Prepare for the coming bank collapse. And discover how this historic scenario will empower the Occupiers message to get money out of elections: “One citizen. One dollar. One vote.”

Compromise on that principle and Wall Street wins, again.



Breakdown of Consensus At the Intellectual Hub of American-Anglo Power?

:: Hedgeye :: Practitioners vs Professors

Yale University hosted a “Panel Discussion on the US Economy - How Do We Create More Jobs” last week that caught a lot of us in the ranks of Yale Alumni off guard. It wasn’t so much Yale’s esteemed James Tobin Professor of Economics, John Geanakoplos, suggesting that we “try inflation as a policy” that would have Wallich rolling over in his grave, as it was the glaring amount of partisanship on the panel.

:: Hedgeye :: Practitioners vs Professors

1.   Richard Levin - opens by saying “we did not stimulate enough”…  and goes on to suggest the US government should have acted as boldly as the Chinese did (which is interesting in and of itself, given that’s not a democracy). Levin thinks it’s “simple” - if we spent even more tax payer moneys, we’d have been fine. This is the Paul Krugman school of thought. Period.

:: Hedgeye :: Practitioners vs Professors

Nordhaus, like Levin, thinks Obama is right and we need a “jobs bill times 3” and “need to stop attacking the Federal Reserve.” He states plainly that any other idea is “partisan” (implicating himself as partisan). He addressed trivial points like the Gold Standard saying “give me a break … come on over to econ 122 and we’ll have a discussion.”

I will let 'Mystic Man' Peter Tosh Comment on The Dollar Yen at Historic Low Headline / 'The Day the Dollar Die'

ZeroHedge:  Dollar Yen Plummets To New Post World War 2 Low

Tyler Durden's picture

The USD just dumped across all major pairs after the recent support in the USDJPY at 76.65 was just broken, leading to a huge plunge first in the Dollar-Yen, to a fresh post WW2 lowm and then in all other pairs. It is unclear what is driving this: probably some combination of QE3 expectations and technical trading now that the bottom has been taken out. The signal is irrelevant: it all originates at the central banks these days anyway. Expect imminent chatter of BOJ intervention to protect its exporters.

I TOLD YOU SO! Deutsche Mark, Deutsche Mark Uber Alles - Euro's Goose is Cooked / Euro Demise / Dollar Demise?

Posts in which I predicted that this was coming:

Courtesy of ZeroHedge:

It's Baaack: FT Deutschland Pronounces Deutsche Mark's Return, Prices Itself At 4.11 DM

Tyler Durden's picture

Curious what the talking heads will be discussing all weekend parallel to the joke that is the European Summit #1, not to be confused with summit #666? Here is the answer, courtesy of the FT Deutschland, where not too subtly, right next to a lede saying "the Euro rescue has turned into a farce", the publication has for the first time, set its price not in zEURo.qq but in Paul Tudor Jones' favorite currency: the Deutsche Mark, or 4.11 DM to be precise. And courtesy of the FTD, we now know the When Issued exchange rate for the EURDEM is: 1.95, the same as was locked at the EUR inception. Said otherwise, stick a fork in the euro, it's done.

The Deutsche Mark Report: Data Below - Form Your Own Opinion

Forget Greece, EUROPE is Finished | ZeroHedge

Debt to GDP ratios north of 200%... banks needing 147 billion Euros in new capital… and somehow Germany is going to bailout Europe? Give me a break. German has its own fiscal disaster approaching. Not to mention the following:  
1)   Over half of Germans want out of the Euro
2)   75% of Germans are against increasing the bailout fund.

Greek debt will need a 64% haircut - Boom!

Greek debt will need a 64% haircut to return to a sustainable debt load, says  -
2 hours ago via web

Deutsche Mark Scenario Playing Out?

Equity Markets Should Prepare for MELTDOWN AGAIN | iBC_FN | iBankCoin Financial News

Josef Ackerman, head of DB and chief lobbyist for international banks, is fighting back against European banks taking larger haircuts from Greece and recapitalizing them.  The shit is about to hit equity markets again as no bazooka will be in force and Germany states the problem will last well into next year.

Arabian Peninsula Flat Out of Silver Bullion at Any Price

Physical silver running out because its spot price does not reflect true investment demand « ArabianMoney

Several readers of ArabianMoney have written to us over the past two weeks to express their astonishment at the current price of silver because demand where they live is so high that stocks have run out. Consider this comment: ‘I used to buy silver from a shop in Kobar in Saudi. From the last four weeks they said they ran out of silver. I cannot find anyone who sells silver in Saudi now. I asked them from where do they get their silver. They said the UAE. The problem is they only have 1kg bars…and I still cannot find any supplier.’ No stock Well don’t bother coming to the UAE. Our information is that the 1kg bars mentioned here and featured in a video on the website last month (click here) are all sold out too.

Deutsche Mark Watch: Germany's Departure Will Be the Event That Sinks Euro - Drachma first, Possibly I guess, but the D-Mark is coming back, buh-bye Euro Bank On it.

Things That Make You Go Hmmmm - Such As Europe's Daisy-Chain, Round-Robin Bailouts Without A clue | ZeroHedge

Me? I remain skeptical - after all, we have just seen how the murine roar of little Slovakia very nearly derailed a political process that had taken six months to coordinate, and that process was required in order to approve a €440 billion bailout fund. Now, it is likely a fresh round of approvals will be required to increase it to several trillion and the largest contributor to those pledges will undoubtedly be Germany; The same Germany whose Constitutional Court ruling last month gave the Bundestag’s Budget Committee an effective veto over future activation of the EFSF, and reinforced German constitutional restrictions on the introduction of Eurobonds.

What a Normal Person Can Do About Inevitably Coming Fiat Currency Debasement: Guns, Gold, and...Nickels!

Some Words Of Advice From Kyle Bass | ZeroHedge

“But even if you’re right, what can any normal person do about it?”   He stared at me as if he’d just seen an interesting sight: the world’s stupidest man.   “What do you tell your mother when she asks you where to put her money?” I asked.   “Guns and gold,” he said simply.   “Guns and gold,” I said. So he was nuts.   But not gold futures,” he said, paying no attention to my thoughts.   "You need physical gold.” He explained that when the next crisis struck, the gold futures market was likely to seize up, as there were more outstanding futures contracts than available gold. People who thought they owned gold would find they owned pieces of paper instead. He opened his desk drawer, hauled out a giant gold brick, and dropped it on the desk. “We’ve bought a lot of this stuff.” At this point, I was giggling nervously and glancing toward the door

The Two Minds (North vs South) that Indicate Euro Demise

oftwominds: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

there is so much wealth and apparent financial stability, the notion that some sort of real-world hardship could actually spread from the southern Eurozone to the north is simply impossible to grasp.

oftwominds: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

In the nations impacted directly by the crisis, there is nothing abstract about the unraveling; it is now part of everyday experience.

oftwominds: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

how can leaders of still prosperous nations to whom the crisis is completely abstract in terms of daily life possibly make the kinds of decisions needed to impose hardship on their populations for a "cause"--"saving the euro"--which has no apparent connection to their everyday lives? The answer is that it will be impossible for political leaders to impose hardships in the real world (higher taxes, austerity, etc.) for "gains" (saving the euro) which are invisible and abstract.

Saudi Arabia: 179.9 Ton Gold Holdings Accounting Error: Better Look at My Own Accounts and See If I left a Ton or Two off My Balance Sheet

Saudi Arabia hid that extra gold, didn't buy it lately | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Gold reserves in Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's biggest economy, increased because of "a difference in accounting," not new gold purchases, central bank governor Muhammad al Jasser said in Kuwait today. Speaking to reporters, he said: "We always had that gold. We did not buy any new gold. It was just a difference in accounting. There was some gold in other accounts." The gold reserve estimate as part of the foreign reserves of the world's largest oil supplier more than doubled in June, according to data on the website of the World Gold Council. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency's gold holdings increased to 322.9 tons, up from the 143 tons reported in March, according to the WGC, which tracks global gold bullion holdings. Saudi Arabia is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves in the world, according to the WGC.

"Be Careful what You Wish For: [99ers]: Like Prohibition, Transaction Tax would only benefit Crooks

Enlightened Self Interest | ZeroHedge

I’m half serious and half joking this morning. I’m looking at the TV and all of the OWS stuff that is happening around the world. This is gathering speed very quickly now. Anyone who thinks this is going to go away in a few days is just nuts. One global response from the “Deciders” to the current protests could be a transaction tax. That would be “popular”. 

Enlightened Self Interest | ZeroHedge

The left side of my brain is with Rogoff. A transaction tax would kill liquidity/capital formation. That would result in a huge spike in volatility. This, in turn, would result in broadly lower equity multiples. The connection between stocks and the economy is too tightly correlated. A very sharp downturn in the economy would have to follow. For these reasons, I’m violently apposed to a transaction tax. The right side of my brain says, “Bring it on”. I’m confident that I can survive and thrive in that environment. Fortunes were made in the 30’s. What may come will be no different.

@CrudeGoldTrader *accidentally* calls @MaxKeiser a Terrorist

 I AM WITH YOU MAX - I was just pointing out you are correctly engaging in the war to reclaim the word  

 thanks for the mention btw- it was not my intention to elicit a reaction - we are on the same side-universe works funny sometimes

Gold Stock Bull : 7 Core Demands from the Occupy Wall Street Movement

7 Core Demands from the Occupy Wall Street Movement | Gold Stock Bull

1) End the Collusion Between Government and Large Corporations/Banks, So That Our Elected Leaders Are Actually Representing the Interests of the People (the 99%) and Not Just Their Rich Donors (the 1%).
2) Investigate Wall Street and Hold Senior Executives Accountable for the Destruction in Wealth that has Devastated Millions of People
3) Return the Power of Coining Money to the U.S. Treasury and Return to Sound Money
4) Limit the Size, Scope and Power of Banks so that None are Ever Again “Too Big to Fail” and in Need to Taxpayer Bailouts
5) Eliminate “Personhood” Legal Status for Corporations
6) Repeal the Patriot Act, End the War on Drugs and Protect Civil Liberties
7) End the Imperial Wars of Aggression, Bring the Troops Home from All Countries, Cut the Military Budget and Limit The Military Role to Protection of the Homeland

NEWSFLASH: Golden Truth Blog Tells Truth about LIESman: "Babbling Bald Moron"

The Golden Truth

HOWEVER, and remember, with me "however" always surfaces when I pull up the actual data and take a closer look at it than does that babbling bald moron on CNBC

You're a Terrorist!..NO, You're a Terrorist - Let the War for the Language Begin

Max Keiser - Frontline financial war reports

This is what happens when you threaten to decap a major NYSE listed company… Posted on October 14, 2011 by maxkeiser| 49 Comments Max Keiser is a new kind of terrorist. Max Keiser is a new kind of terrorist. He uses the internet and boycotts to manipulate stock prices.

First Goldman, then.....

ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

After Goldman, Italian Protestors Besiege, Storm Headquarters Of Berlusconi's Fininvest Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2011 - 10:36 Rating Agency First Goldman, next the heart of all that is wrong and corrupt with Italian politics: the headquarters of Silvio Berlusconi's Milan Fininvest office itself. And this is just the beginning: many more protests are expected to take place tomorrow as "outraged" civilians take the streets of Rome.

US Odds for Winning WWIII Climb Again

Hard Landing - "Pride Of China" Fighter Jet Nosedives Into Field During Airshow

Hard Landing - "Pride Of China" Fighter Jet Nosedives Into Field During Airshow


krispkritter's picture

"The pirot ejacurated safry"...

idea_hamster's picture

Interestingly, the name, 'Flying Leopard' is a homonym for 'Flying Explosion' -- both are (pinyin) fei1 bao4.


If 50% Haircut Killed Look for Panic in Europe

UBS Kills Latest European Bailout Proposal: "Why A 50% Haircut On Greek Debt Will Not Work" | ZeroHedge

Alas, if the 50% haircut idea, which is now proposed by Germany (in diametrical contrast to a month ago), and staunchly opposed by France whose banks, unlike Deutsche Bank, have not been able to dispose of legacy exposure, is killed before it is even implemented, look for a spike in panic in Europe which will now have to redo everything from scratch.

Jim Rogers: 100% conviction in his "bond short" call - Massive Bond Bubble - No Deflation - Stagflation Worse than '70's - "Mother of all Stagflations coming soon..."

Jim Rogers Sees Devastating Stagflation, Would Quit If He Was A Bond Portfolio Manager | ZeroHedge

In a CNBC interview with Jim Rogers, the former Quantum Fund co-founder, who back in July said he was had shorted US Treasurys, exhibited absolutely no remorse, instead reiterated a 100% conviction in his "bond short" call: "Rogers said when there is a bubble, such as the one being experienced in U.S. Treasurys, prices could go up for long periods of time. Bill Gross of Pimco, who also had a bearish view on Treasurys, threw in the towel earlier this year. But Rogers is sticking to his opinion that Treasurys will eventually fall.

Jim Rogers Sees Devastating Stagflation, Would Quit If He Was A Bond Portfolio Manager | ZeroHedge

Ok, so no deflation. What then? The U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of stagflation worse than the 1970s,

Its Post Bubble Inflation Supply and Demand Stupid!

"As the inflation numbers get worse and as governments print more money and as governments have to issue many, many more bonds - somewhere along the line we get to the point when (bond prices) go down."

Jim Rogers Sees Devastating Stagflation, Would Quit If He Was A Bond Portfolio Manager | ZeroHedge

"This time is never different" and why the mother of all stagflations is coming soon: Rogers believes inflation will get much worse this time because, he said, in the 1970s only the Fed was printing money, whereas now many global central banks have been easing monetary policy.

For now though Rogers is playing it safe and avoiding bonds. Instead, he's betting on stagflation by being long commodities and currencies (such as the Chinese yuan) and shorting stocks.

"In the 70s you didn't make much money in stocks, you made fortunes owning commodities," Rogers added.

Lee Adler: "Foreign Central Banks Dumping US Treasuries" - "Something is rotten here. These are signs of major systemic stress."

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

About 6 weeks ago, something changed. FCBs not only slowed their buying of Treasuries, they stopped altogether, reversed course and actually began selling them. Three weeks ago their selling reached a level that I characterized in my weekly Treasury update for subscribers as "dumping." It was simply unprecedented. I opined that this could be the beginning of the end of the Treasury bull market, in spite of any effect that the Fed's new Operation Twist might have.

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

As a result of today's market, the yield on the 10 year has broken out of an intermediate term base. Unless yields pull back immediately, the implication is that the intermediate term target is 2.50. Meanwhile, Bernanke had assured investors that long term yields would fall as a result of his doing the Twist.

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

The dealers appear to be in trouble. They began selling off their fixed income paper of all types in early September. That accelerated to what I can only characterize as wholesale dumping in the weeks ended September 21 and 28. It is no coincidence that those where the weeks where we began to see yields reverse from their record run.

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

These are troubling developments, not just for their implications for the bond market, but for what they imply about the health of the backbone of the US financial system--the Fed's Primary Dealer (PD) network.

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

If major corporations are supposedly doing so well and their balance sheets are in such great shape, why did the PDs not accumulate their fixed income securities throughout the equities bull market of 2009 and 2010? And especially why have they been frantically dumping their corporate holdings since June?

Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry | ZeroHedge

Something is rotten here. These are signs of major systemic stress.

"if you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, now is the time to do so"

The REAL $200 TRILLION Problem Bernanke’s Worried About | ZeroHedge

On that note, if you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, now is the time to do so. Whether it’s by moving to cash and bullion, opening some shorts, or simply getting out of the markets altogether, now is the time to be preparing for what’s coming (remember, stocks took six months to bottom after Lehman… and that was when the Fed still had some bullets left to combat the collapse).

180 Proof Kentucky Backwoods Bourbon of Finance - Must Read On ZeroHedge or Enjoy Sips of 180 Proof Moonshine Version Here

Guest Post: Big Trouble Brewing | ZeroHedge

Like everybody, I have no idea when the next market crash will occur, but I do happen to hold the view that a market crash is on the way. In fact, my view is that the entire future from here onward will be marked by sharp plunges (both crashes and regular market declines), followed by periods of stability, if not apparent recovery.

What I track instead are imbalances and risks. Sort of like being a fire marshal who takes note of an outlet with fifteen things plugged into it, some with frayed cords, located near a pile of old cleaning rags. I can't tell you for sure that a fire will result, only that the odds are elevated. A prudent person will take steps to remedy the situation or at least prepare for the possibility of a fire.

"If they cannot address this [the sovereign debt crisis in Europe] in a credible way, I believe within perhaps two to three weeks, we will have a meltdown in sovereign debt which will produce a meltdown across the European banking system.  We're not just talking about a relatively small Belgian bank, we're talking about the largest banks in the world. The largest banks in Germany, the largest banks in France that will spread to the UK in part through the sovereign debt problems in Ireland.  It will spread everywhere because the global financial system is so interconnected, all those banks are counterparties to every significant bank in the US and in Britain, and in Japan and around the world. This would be a crisis, in my view, more serious than the crisis in 2008." (Source)

The stakes could not be higher. Normally staid politicians are letting their guard down and saying previously unthinkable things.

monetary unions do not break up without civil war or some other form of authoritarian reaction

You know, after all these political shocks, economic shocks, it is very rare indeed that in the next 10 years we could avoid a war'. A war ladies and gentlemen. I am really thinking about obtaining a green card for my kids in the United States".

In short, there's every chance here that an even worse repeat of 2008 could happen at any time

Phoenix-area real estate collapse echoed troubles Oct 9, 2011 A look at metro Phoenix's foreclosure crisis over the past five years shows an economic crash moving through time and space. The collapse started in new-housing areas on the fringes and then swept inward,

Similarly, the European debt crisis began in the weakest locales first (Ireland and Greece), then infected the middle countries (Portugal, Italy, and Spain) and now threatens to overrun the core (Germany and France). A wave of sovereign defaults will sweep across the region, progressing from the outside in with a self-sustaining and self-reinforcing dynamic, unless somehow stopped.

This means Belgium is potentially on the hook for $78.6 billion in bailout funds for a single institution, which amounts to 17% of GDP (2010 figure). To put this into perspective for our US readers, that would be the equivalent of the USA guaranteeing $2.6 trillion...for a single bank

Anybody care to guess whether the amount that they decided to guarantee will be ultimately sufficient to cover the actual amount of the total potential losses? My guess is that over time the number will prove to be far, far below the final and true cost.

With the triggering of a default, the fear of contagion will spread, because, frankly, nobody really knows where the time bombs are located in the credit default swap (CDS derivative) markets.

The bottom line here is that the European situation is quite far from resolved, and as we've been saying all along, it really can't until large losses are taken by someone.

The key point to understand about our economy is that it is anything but straightforward and linear. It is a complex system, meaning that it has two characteristics of which we should be aware: It requires energy to maintain and/or increase its complexity, and it is unpredictable.  One typical feature of complex systems is that they tend to jump rather abruptly from one state to the next. Where they can exist in some sort of seeming equilibrium for quite a while, a sufficient exogenous shock (or a change in conditions, such as becoming energy-starved) can often cause them to transition rather suddenly to the next point of 'equilibrium'. Said more simply, systems often have tipping points

That's why it's best to be pre-positioned in your financial, physical, and emotional preparations, so that when the next bout of extreme volatility exerts itself, little to no immediate action is needed on your part during the tumult


Sorry for all the cut and paste Chris Martenson - TOO Damn Many Really Good and Important Points that I wanted to emphasize for anyone coming to my blog - so hopefully directing people to your site for more is compensation enough.  Thanks again.  Here's the link for more of what the fuck to do about it from Chris:


The Straw that Broke the Reindeer's Back


Why Iceland Should Be in the News But Is Not |

Protests and riots continued, eventually forcing the government to resign. Elections were brought forward to April 2009, resulting in a left-wing coalition which condemned the neoliberal economic system, but immediately gave in to its demands that Iceland pay off a total of three and a half million Euros. This required each Icelandic citizen to pay 100 Euros a month (or about $130) for fifteen years, at 5.5% interest, to pay off a debt incurred by private parties vis a vis other private parties. It was the straw that broke the reindeer’s back. What happened next was extraordinary. The belief that citizens had to pay for the mistakes of a financial monopoly, that an entire nation must be taxed to pay off private debts was shattered, transforming the relationship between citizens and their political institutions and eventually driving Iceland’s leaders to the side of their constituents. The Head of State, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, refused to ratify the law that would have made Iceland’s citizens responsible for its bankers’ debts, and accepted calls for a referendum

We were told that if we refused the international community’s conditions, we would become the Cuba of the North. But if we had accepted, we would have become the Haiti of the North.”

Today, that country is recovering from its financial collapse in ways just the opposite of those generally considered unavoidable, as confirmed yesterday by the new head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde to Fareed Zakaria. The people of Greece have been told that the privatization of their public sector is the only solution. And those of Italy, Spain and Portugal are facing the same threat. They should look to Iceland. Refusing to bow to foreign interests, that small country stated loud and clear that the people are sovereign. That’s why it is not in the news anymore.




Keep buying retail investors...History never rhymes or repeats...ever!

ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

No, it isn't 2008. It is a pale imitation. At least based on the Columbus Day (yes, bonds were closed then too) rally back in 2008 when the S&P soared by a ginormous 11%. Obviously what happened next was a roughly 40% plunge in stocks over the next several months. Suggesting the same could happen again would be preposterous

Nations Positioning for WWIII

It Won't Be An Accident: The Build Up to World War III
When playing chess the outcome of the game is usually determined in the early stages by the positions that are built up by each player even before the first pawn falls. These moves may seem innocuous to the untrained eye, but an experienced player can read the threats which grow and develop at each stage. They can see the traps which are being laid. Right now, the nations of the world are organizing and positioning themselves – financially, diplomatically, and militarily – for a struggle which will alter the global power structure irrevocably. It would be impossible to understand the economic collapse which is slowly unfolding, and the great war which wall almost certainly follow, without taking into account the stakes of this global chess game. … World War III is not going to be an accident.

Celente, Webbot, & BixWeir all Warning Imminent Total Financial Collapse

Multiple respected prognosticators of an impending total western fiancial systemic collapse are making themselves heard today.

Their views, in general, are not new, but I thought it notable that all three are making their voice heard today.

So without further ado, I present to you for your own judgment, analysis and discernment:

You can take a listen to "Doom Pornographer" Gerald Celente here:

For the very detailed and historically often accurate (i.e. 911 & 2008 Crash)  Clif High and his Webbot:


If you want A LOT more detail, get his report with is worth, imo, A LOT more than $10.

And, last but not least let me fill you in on some words from Bix Weir and his Road to Roota Theory as of today.

Here's what I wrote on Friday related to the DEXIA issue...
"One of the largest derivative players in Europe is imploding as we speak. This will destroy ALL derivative markets across every continent. Watch for a bailout followed by massive market manipulation next week... followed by a total collapse."

The bailout happened as expected this weekend and now we are in the "massive market manipulation next week" part.  Stock markets are being pumped up by the banksters to hide the truth and to support the world's financial system a bit longer...but it will fail.
After this comes the "total collapse".

Clif High of www.halfpasthuman.com has posted an update on his website related to his predictions of when the REAL chaos will start. You can find it here:

Funeral For A Zombie


"Our data suggests that the most likely target date will be October 17th (a Monday), after very shocking developments emerge on October 15th."
This falls right in line with my "Time Line" article that I wrote back in July:
"The markets may start to seriously convulse by late September/early October with the realization by the public that there never was a real recovery and it was all the hocus-pocus of Larry Summers and Austan Goolsbee with their "Behavioral Economics Model".

What follows will be the total and complete destruction of all paper and electronic "assets" over a period of chaotic months. All the pieces are in place to take down the banksters once and for all but it won't be pleasant. It's more like ripping off a bandaid.

Here's a very important article back in January...

Transition 2011 & the Tree of Liberty