Saudi Currency Black Swan

 "Which brings up the question of devaluation: how long until the SAR has to follow the Yuan and see a substantial haircut. According to the market, 12 month SAR forward are now trading at a price which implies a 12% devaluation in the coming months. When that happens is, of course, up to the King Salman. What it also means is that as Saudi Arabia is now scrambling to generate any incremental cash, it too will be caught in the deflationary spiral of excess production as it will have no choice but to outsell its competitors, especially those rushing to grab Chinese market share such as Russia, as it seeks to make up with volume what it has lost due to lower prices. It also means that any hopes of a production freeze by Saudi Arabia - and thus OPEC - are hereby snuffed for the indefinite future."

Are The Saudis Facing A Full-Blown Liquidity Crisis? | OilPrice.com

$10? $100? Where the Oil Price Goes this Year is Anyone's Guess

"The median price predicted by analysts is around $46 a barrel for the end of 2016, but there is a lot of variation around that number. 

Last year, noted economist A Gary Schilling suggested oil could fall to as little $10 a barrel. 

Natixis SA, a Paris-based bank believes crude will average $38 a barrel in the fourth quarter of the year on concerns about Iranian production increases

Recent oil bullishness has been driven by increased oil supply disruptions which alleviate the daily production glut - Venezuela, Nigeria, China, Libya, Canada

“High” prices could be short lived, with Saudi Arabia and Iran both preparing to ramp up production and the hit to output in Canada due to wildfires being quickly resolved. 

Oil prices could be headed lower if the Fed raises rates in June. That scenario now looks increasingly likely thanks to inflation that is stronger than many have been expecting and an economy that is at least stable though not strong. 

U.S. rig counts are also still falling, with the number of oil rigs in the country down by more than half in the last year."

The Wildest Predictions For Oil Prices In 2016 | Zero Hedge

Oil Markets 'Black Swan Event'? -KSA Liquidity Crisis & Bets Against Saudi Riyal / USD Peg

AEP: Saudi financial crisis 'could leave oil at $25' as contractors face being paid in IOUs:

"Societe Generale’s currency team has advised clients to short the Saudi riyal, betting that the country will be forced to ditch its long-standing dollar peg, a move that could set off a cut-throat battle for global share in the oil markets. Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America, said a rupture of the peg is this year’s number one “black swan event” and would cause oil prices to collapse to $25 a barrel. "

Staying in the Zone: Why I Stay Quiet in Early AM in the Room

I don't like to talk over the mic in the room in the Early AM period. This article from Brett Steenbarger over at http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/ indicates probably that what I have unconsciously been trying to do is Stay in the Zone

The Surprising Reason We're Not In The Zone When We Trade


"The bottom left display shows that I am functioning "in the zone" during this period of coherence.  Over that period, almost all my scores fall into the green (high) coherence category (bottom right frame).  When hooked to the unit, you can see your rhythms, whether you're in the zone, and whether you're scoring in the green area.  All of these give you instantaneous feedback to let you know if your self-control efforts are succeeding. Notice the change in my rhythms (top panel) about midway through the demonstration.  At that point, I began talking aloud about financial markets in a stream of consciousness fashion.  I was *not* talking about anything stressful, but notice that simply taking my mind off the self-control efforts was sufficient to get me out of the zone (bottom left panel) and put my readings in the red zone."

TraderFeed


Naimi Fired!

Saudi Arabia’s Powerful Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi Is Fired

Departure is part of wider government reshuffle

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in Sudan on May 4.ENLARGE

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in Sudan on May 4. PHOTO: REUTERS

By

AHMED AL OMRAN

Updated May 7, 2016 10:50 a.m. ET

2 COMMENTS

RIYADH—Saudi Arabia fired long-serving oil minister Ali al-Naimi on Saturday, dismissing one of the industry’s most powerful figures as the country battles with weak oil prices.

Mr. Naimi, who had been the kingdom’s oil minister since 1995, has been a loud voiceagainst lowering Saudi Arabia’s production when prices fall, a departure from its past tactics.

He will be replaced by Khalid al-Falih, chairman of state oil company Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Saudi Aramco.

The royal decree, announced via state media, is part of a wider government reshuffle that includes a restructuring of the oil ministry, which has been renamed the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources.

GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER

Government Required Disclaimer: Crude Oil Gold Trading Room does not hold itself out as a Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”). Given this representation, all information and material provided by Crude Oil Gold Trading Room is for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.